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Thanks to everyone who joined us in the webinar today, officially launching our new book ANYWHERE: How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business. For the discussion, I was joined by five terrific thought-leaders in the connectivity space:

  • Glenn Lurie, President, Emerging Devices, AT&T
  • Walter McCormick, President & CEO, U.S. Telecom Association
  • Paul Sagan, President & CEO, Akamai Technologies
  • Sriram Viswanathan, VP, Architecture Group, Intel
  • Nigel Waller, Founder & CEO, Movirtu, Ltd.

A special thanks to each of them for taking the time to chat about Anywhere and illustrate their own business’ opportunities and challenges. If you missed the presentation, the replay is below–I would be delighted to hear your thoughts.

The webinar runs about an hour: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).

Happy ANYWHERE!

by Emily Green
January 4, 2010

We interrupt your New Year’s resolution-making for an important announcement. ANYWHERE: How Global Connectivity is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business (McGraw-Hill) is officially shipping from all major booksellers.

[As a one-time resident of the great city of Philadelphia, PA, I was delighted that the first reported in-store sighting of the book was at the Barnes & Noble in Rittenhouse Square, Philadelphia. ]

Our official launch of the book is on January 14th, with a webinar where I’ll talk about the book with some of the thought leaders who contributed to the research.  Sign up to join me here.

Keep up with all our doings around the book’s official launch by checking the book’s website, where we’ll be posting book signing events, reviews, and other launch activities.  Plus, because we did so much research for the book that we weren’t able to include in the book itself, we will be augmenting the website with in-depth interviews and resources over the next few months.

If you’re a YG client, you can read this recent report I wrote based on book interviews with two creative entrepreneurs bringing Anywhere opportunities to emerging markets.

Happy 2010 to everyone. We all managed to make it through 2009. Now let’s get back out there and build the Anywhere Network.

ANYWHERE: The book

by Emily Green
November 18, 2009

Green_3dbookshotFirst it was an idea… then it became a company-wide research mission… now it’s a book.

Today we start talking publicly about something we have been working on at Yankee Group for much of this past year: our first mass-market book. If you have worked with us recently — or even if you have just visited our web site or talked with us about what we do –  it should come as no surprise that the name of the book is ANYWHERE.

The book is nearing publication with McGraw-Hill, for release in stores on January 8, 2010 (although the major online bookstores are taking orders now; hint, hint). You can get a taste of what it’s all about by downloading Chapter 9, “How ANYWHERE Do You Need to Be?” at our book website, which is anywhere.yankeegroup.com.

Since we’re now preparing to support media interest in the book, I thought I’d use this post as an opportunity to practice my book Q&A.  So I’ll interview myself!

Intriguing title! What’s it about? ANYWHERE is Yankee Group’s vision for the emergence of ubiquitous connectivity: when a seamless, capacious, and intelligent network connects all of us and the things we care about. The book explains why this is happening — but more importantly, it exposes the tremendous changes still ahead in all our lives as it happens. We set out the vision, how and when it happens around the world, and what it’s doing for us as consumers, workers, and business leaders. That’s why the subtitle of the book is How Global Connectivity is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business.

But Yankee Group’s research is all about Anywhere already. Why did you write a book? By any measure you could choose — the number of people touched, the geographical scope of the technologies, the total economic value added — this revolution in the expansion of the global network will be the largest technology change of our lifetimes, even bigger by far than the commercialization of the Internet.  Yet frankly most managers in the business world today don’t yet see the magnitude of those changes: how the network’s expanded reach will continue to ‘flatten’ the planet, how the growing richness of network experiences will create new appetites in us as consumers, how the network’s intelligence will shrink costs in companies and change the fundamental nature of our activities as businesses.

So we wrote this book to educate businesses on how best to steer their initiatives, partnerships, product development, customer service and virtually every other aspect of a business in order to succeed in the Anywhere environment.

What does the reader get? We focused on describing the business impact of the network changes ahead — in non-technical terms — and prescribing specific things that managers can do to profit from those.  For instance, we paint some pictures of how the lives of typical people will change in ten years’ time, in both developed and emerging markets. We show some companies living the Anywhere vision now, and share how that’s transforming their businesses. We explain how to decide when to move, and what to tackle when you do.

Big scope. How did you pull this picture together? Yankee Group’s extensive resources in the communications world gave us the chance to interview over 50 thought leaders in connectivity–from pioneers to CEOs, from small firms to mega-corporations.  Bob Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet… Nicholas Negroponte, founder of the One Laptop Per Child initiative… Dan Hesse, CEO of Sprint… Reed Hundt, former chairman of the U.S. FCC, and many more big thinkers lent us their support. Check out the complete list here. Besides our data assets and terrific contributions from our own analysts, the ideas, advice, and examples from these participants provide very rich context for the Anywhere vision.

You sound excited — why? The reason why all of us at Yankee Group are excited is that we are evangelists for the huge benefits the world will enjoy from the continued expansion of the network — to more people, more devices, and more services. As analysts, we are independent but not neutral: we unequivocally want the Anywhere Network to emerge. The sooner that happens, and the more business people ‘get’ that message and commit themselves to planning how to benefit, the better. With this book, we feel like we’re doing our part to help that all come about.

I’m excited about everyone’s feedback, too. You can talk about it here, follow me on Twitter, join the book’s Facebook fan page, add your reviews and comments on the online book store pages, and of course email me directly as always.

PS: Yes, it’s going to be available in e-book formats as well! You should expect no less for a company working to become an Anywhere Enterprise. Amazon will be promoting it in Kindle form in January — more on that shortly.  Meanwhile — see you Anywhere!

Twenty-six percent of you told us today that tech spending will grow in 2010, while 61 percent expect it to remain flat and just 13 percent believe it will go down. The economy and its effect on the communications ecosystem is top of mind for many. But there continues to be a positive vibe around innovation and what 2010 will bring in terms of global connectivity.

Yankee Group’s primary goal is to help you navigate the evolving landscape. Earlier, I sat down with Yankee Group Senior VP Zeus Kerravala to chat about Yankee Group, our research and our work this year, and took questions from clients about our Anywhere Scorecard initiatives, 2010 product direction and more. Tune in to the replay below.

The webinar runs about an hour: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).

Today is a proud moment for Yankee Group—one that validates our company’s influence on a national scale. David Vorhaus, a senior analyst here at Yankee Group, is taking a leave of absence to join the National Broadband Task Force at the FCC. The mission of the task force is to research and write the National Broadband Plan, which defines how broadband will be adopted across the country, to establish benchmarks for the plan and to help inform how broadband stimulus dollars should be invested.

It’s no surprise that a Yankee Group analyst has been tapped for such an important post. Yankee Group’s depth of expertise on broadband and regulatory issues is unmatched in the industry, and in addition to David, several other Yankee Group analysts—including  Dianne Northfield, Vince Vittore and Benoît Felten—have devoted numerous reports, webinars, podcasts and client projects to the topic throughout the year.

Those reports, including “What the U.S. Must Do for Broadband,” “Ubiquitous U.S. Broadband Will Cost At Least Triple the Current Stimulus Package” and “Memo to President Obama: We Need Anywhere for America,” underscore Yankee Group’s commitment to broadband reform and spotlight the importance of connectivity and the development of the Anywhere Network to the broader economic recovery.

It’s clear that Yankee Group has our finger on the pulse of broadband reform. Not only has David been tapped for this prestigious post, but our open letter to President Obama—sent during Obama’s first week in office—has also garnered results. The letter addressed a number of broadband-related issues, including the need to recommit to building a public safety broadband network and fund the USDA’s Rural Utilities Service (RUS) broadband program. Yankee Group received feedback from Michael Copps, the acting commissioner of the FCC, and our suggestion about funding the RUS has been incorporated into the federal stimulus package. And Yankee Group continues to influence the larger broadband discussion, as our own Benoît Felten was recently invited to present on fiber to the home (FTTH) at the FCC.

It’s an exciting and natural step that one of our very own was invited to step up to the national stage. Please join me in congratulating David.

Reading room at the U.S. Library of Congress

Reading room at the U.S. Library of Congress

Bloggus interruptus. Firing up my contributions to our blog again after a five-month hiatus feels weird. I almost feel as if I need to re-introduce myself, as if at a 12-step program: ’Hello, my name is Emily, and I can’t stop thinking about connectivity’s impact in our lives.’

Why five months? That’s the time it took me to finish writing a book while suspending any other writing. It won’t be ready for months more, given the follow-on steps at McGraw-Hill and other publishers — gotta get all those commas in the right places, then go kill some trees. Yes, I’m well aware of the potential irony of Yankee Group’s ideas about ubiquitous connectivity being prepared to be frozen in a disconnected, analog format like chewed-up trees and ink. We do expect it to come out in e-book format as well.

But will people continue to read long-format thinking, digital or otherwise? On the consumption end of Anywhere content, the shortening of attention spans isn’t news; rather it’s a decades-long megatrend. Most recently, Carl Howe saw a stat that only 20% of people in the U.S. read even one book in the last 12 months.

What of the attention spans for generating content in the age of Anywhere? After months in a mode of mapping out the long arcs of chapter premise, introduction, body, examples, sidebars, and conclusion, it definitely feels weird to be resuming the construction and near-simultaneous publication of a standalone, crisp, 300-word thought.

Larry Weber’s view is that as we move to ubiquitous connectivity, nothing digital will ever be finished. Kind of unsettling in a way. What pushes a writer to lock up his final ideas if they’re only going to digital screens with a constant link to more, to the new? I so enjoyed the sense of closure that came from shipping  (ok, emailing) the completed manuscript.

So while our book’s manuscript is finished, we’ll now start constructing a digital home on our website for the more, the new. Anywhere (don’t tell me you’re surprised by the name) will live on with more voices, more ideas, more data well beyond the moment it’s frozen for your Kindle pleasure.

That’s my warm-up blog entry, leaving the chapter arcs behind. I promise more coherent snappy entries from here!

We’re pleased to announce new forecasts in our Market Adoption Monitors and Forecast data suites. In June, we added new forecasts including:

Near field communications. Jon Paisner is building out a regional m-commerce forecast and has built an NFC forecast, shortly to be followed by contactless payments, mobile couponing, mobile banking and P2P. Jon’s NFC forecast charts this nascent market from 2009 including NFC-enabled phones, active users and transaction volumes and values. Volumes and values are segmented by denomination because the competitive behavior of transactions under $5 differs from those over $5. Jon shows rapid growth in this market, predicting 4.7 billion transactions globally in the 5 years from 2009-2013. Nearly 9 in 10 of these transactions will be low denomination by volume, but the value of high denomination transactions is 62.4% of the $28 billion that will be transacted globally over NFC over the next 5 years, predominantly in Asia.

nfc-forecast1

IPTV. Vince Vittore has completed his work on IPTV forecasts by touching all 55 countries in our forecast. With 21 million global subscribers in 2008, he shows nearly 80 million IPTV subscribers in 2013, an increase of 58.8 million new subscribers during 2009 through 2013. The most new subs are in Asia, adding 27.9m followed by Western Europe (adding 17.6m), and North America (10.2m). Latin America, Eastern Europe and MEA are only 3.1m new subs. The country view gives us household penetration, and although Hong Kong leads now at 49.7% forecast for 2009, followed by France at 35.7%, in 2013 five countries will have penetration over 30% (France, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Switzerland and South Korea in descending order).

global-iptv-subscribers1

Digital advertising forecast. Carl Howe is leading an integrated digital advertising forecast that includes TV, Internet and Mobile advertising revenues, complementing the carrier mobile advertising forecast that we have had for some time. Mobile advertising in this new forecast defines the entire market for mobile advertising, rather than the piece seen by the carrier. As a share of all advertising, mobile is small, remaining under 1% throughout the 5-year forecast to 2013, but in North America it jumps the half-billion dollar mark in 2013 from a lowly $185m expected in 2009. Set against the $79.3 billion total North American digital advertising market in 2008, which we see rising to nearly $100 billion in 2013 through modest growth in TV and (moreso) Internet advertising, though, and mobile advertising is perhaps not a big play. Carl is currently working on expanding the digital TV forecast into other regions and countries.

digital-advertising

Expansion of Middle East and African forecasts: Wally Swain has been spending time focusing on Africa and the Middle East and completed the range of fixed-line forecasts in that region to add to the mobile-related forecasts already available.

This plot analyzes the relationships among the number of songs stored on consumer PCs, music players, and phones. (Click for a larger version)

This plot analyzes the relationships among the number of songs stored on consumer PCs, music players, and phones. (Click for a larger version)

I’ve been a big fan of the open source R statistics package for years, having used it extensively for data analysis at my own firm. Lately, I’ve been dusting off my R skills and applying them again here at Yankee Group, and I’ve been pleased to discover I’m not alone. The New York Times published a great article on its use earlier this year noting that companies as diverse as Pfizer, Merck, Intercontinental Hotels, and Shell are all avid users. More recently, Michael Driscoll at dataspora.com posted the discussion from a panel in San Francisco where  both Google and Facebook executive discussed how they use R to understand their users. I was particularly taken with Bo Cowgill’s description of R:

“The best thing about R is that it was developed by statisticians. The worst thing about R is that… it was developed by statisticians.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I hosted an open Q&A webcast for analyst relations professionals. I recapped Yankee Group’s Q1 achievements, including our Framework Reports and our work tackling U.S. broadband policy issues, and previewed some of our upcoming research and events. There were some great questions addressed in the session and I encourage you to take a listen.

The webcast runs about 45 minutes: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).

 The communication industry is anxious to go through the details of the stimulus package to find some things to cheer for all. All of us at Yankee Group, including our expert on regulatory issues, Dianne Northfield, and I have been watching the developments with great interest.   We feel the administration needs to do more to advance the nation towards ubiquitous connectivity—what we call “Anywhere”—with the unification of wired and mobile broadband networks to create new capabilities for citizens, businesses and governments alike. 

Ultimately, we feel that the economic stimulus package will have minimal impact on extending broadband access in the U.S. because it lacks the backing of a national broadband policy (NBP).  

The U.S. is one of the few nations around the world that has failed to embrace a national broadband vision and strategy. A national multiyear broadband policy must be articulated, made easily accessible to the public, and must strike a balance between outlining objectives, priorities and tangible outcomes. Read the rest of this entry »