Yankee Group Blog

Blog Home

Analyst Pages

Categories

Search:

Blog Alert:

Enter your e-mail address to receive notifications when there are new posts.

Archives

Yankee Group RSS Feed

Graph of Car Locator Sales

Eddie Kim, author of the Android Car Locator app, just announced today that his app has reached a new milestone of $13,000 a month in revenue. Now that may be chicken feed next to what top performing iPhone apps do (the record-breaking PopCap game Plants versus Zombies for iPhone, for example, just went from zero to $1 million in revenue in 9 days). However, Eddie makes a more important point farther down his post:
Read the rest of this entry »

Windows Phone 7 Series home screen

Microsoft announced its new take on its Windows Mobile OS today at Mobile World Congress, christened Windows Phone 7 Series (I’ll abbreviate it WP7S for convenience; see a demo here, Microsoft Silverlight required). Despite my enjoyment of my present Phone, I’m really pleased and excited to see this.

Read the rest of this entry »

The rumors of a Motorola dismemberment plan have sprung anew with a Wednesday article in the WSJ.  Everyone, get your axes ready – either to grind or to hack off your favorite piece of the Moto beast.  The latest round of speculation points to the possibility of Motorola combining their handset and set top box divisions to build a new integrated future. Of course, speculation also exists pointing to the potential spin-off of these units.  Who are all these unnamed speculators anyway?  Whether it is to sell them off or create competitive advantage, the merger of the two units raises some interesting prospects.

If Motorola can come up with a workable structure to blend its mobile device unit with its set top box unit, then that new combined group would hold tremendous promise to integrate consumers’ digital media in an exciting way.  That combination would certainly attract the interests of companies like Huawei, Asus and others looking to gain more prominent market positioning in the mobile and CE industries.  Of course, if Motorola could do that easily, it wouldn’t be looking to dismantle itself and sell off the valuable morsels to the highest bidder.  So while I think the combination of the two units is a fine notion at a high level, the fact remains that Motorola has failed to integrate its two most important business groups in any significant way and will have to undergo major cultural and organizational changes to realize that vision. Back in early 2007, I met with then CMO of Motorola, Casey Keller, at a trade show to discuss media integration and device interaction between mobile handsets and set top boxes.  Keller shared the view that Motorola held the strongest potential hand in the business to do that, but was facing an anemic mobile device pipeline (how many ways can you sell a RAZR, after all?) and new levels of challenge on the set top box side as well.  So, vision took a back seat to triage and the more important task of stopping the bleeding, but execution proved to be elusive.  From YE 2006 to YE 2009, Motorola’s annual device sales dropped by approximately 65%.

Three years later, the Motorola device group is showing solid signs of rebirth with its recent line-up of smartphones architected around the Android platform.  The new expanding portfolio leverages Motorola’s greatest recent advance: the highly customized Motoblur experience that presents users with all their social networking and primary apps in a single view.  If this concept catches fire, it provides an interesting potential roadmap for Motorola to upgrade its set top box experience to include similar capabilities for social networking but, perhaps more importantly, media sharing among a consumer’s multiple devices.  With its massive share of the North American set top box market, Motorola holds a unique hand of assets and partners.  Cable companies have been desperate to extend their relevance beyond the TV and laptop and a set top box that easily interacts with mobile and CE devices, integrating digital media could be just the trick.

But the window of opportunity for this integrated approach is limited, so, Motorola, god speed. As Jeff Goldblum famously said in Jurassic Park, “Life, uh, finds a way.” In the consumer media world “life” is the idea of acquiring, enjoying and moving media on any device you want, whenever and anywhere you want.  Consumers are already experimenting with this in many forms.  Whether it is the game station, laptop, media gateway, transcoders, mobile apps, etc, consumers have a huge selection of ways to get media from A to B, but few are terribly satisfying from either a user interface or device compatibility basis.  This leaves Motorola with some wiggle room to merge the set top box business and mobile device unit to generate a new integrated vision of consumer media.  The vision will need to be both technical and cultural to bridge the gaps between the two business units, which share nothing beyond a company brand.  But with proper execution, such an approach could save set top boxes and the Motorola brand from being another set of fossils on the anywhere evolutionary path.

Today’s announcement by Google that it is exploring deploying an experimental 1 Gbps fiber to the home service in a small number of communities sounds like crazy talk (see Benoit Felten’s analysis for his view on this announcement). Could Google really believe that it could run an fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) service akin to Verizon’s FiOS as a side business? However as I reflected on the announcement and my recent reading of Ken Auletta’s book, Googled, I find myself thinking that this is anything but a side business. I think that this project is Google executing on a key element of its BHAG.

Read the rest of this entry »

Star Walk iPhone app on iPad

Based on all the details Wednesday, I’ve written an iPad analysis report that clients should be able to dive into later today. The bottom line: no matter how much you may think Apple ran its hype machine this week, the iPad will be a force to be reckoned with. Why? Because Apple has a unique vision for Anywhere devices and the marketing muscle to back it up. If you have comments or disagreements after reading it, please send them.

Meanwhile, a number of questions and objections to the iPad have popped up online, and given that I’m one of only about 500 people who has used an iPad for a half-hour or so, I thought I’d repond to them here. So without further ado:

Isn’t iPad just a big iPod touch?

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll be publishing a detailed analysis for clients about the Apple iPad and its effect on connected devices (i.e., it’s a big deal) in the next day or so. I have also posted photos that I took of the press, VIPs, and tablets we saw today for those who are interested.

However, I also had some takeaways from the event that fell somewhere between the immediacy of my tweets and the detailed analysis mentioned above. As I look toward the iPad shipping in late March/early April, I see some changes coming. Specifically:

  • iPad will knee-cap the netbook market. Despite the millions of units sold, netbooks deliver a lousy user experience; in fact, some netbooks have return rates of 33% or more simply because of that poor consumer experience (see the October 2009 Yankee Group report, Little Netbooks Can Sink Big Brands for details). Unless you’re an analyst or other traveler who has to spend much of your time writing, iPad will be a better investment. Oh, netbooks will survive, but they’ll be in the traditional race to the bottom of the price ladder, while Apple scoops up all the profits from the segment. Said another way, if you know that a device like the iPad will be available, why would you ever buy a netbook?
  • Consumers will struggle with whether to buy the 3G iPad. iPad is the archtype Anywhere device: its broadband connection and its links to networked apps and content are what make it special. But given that adding a 3G connection adds more than 26 percent to the iPad’s purchase price, consumers will have trouble deciding whether it is worth it, even before the prepaid broadband connection.
  • Prepaid iPad broadband will win over consumers. Apple’s announcement of AT&T’s mobile broadband pricing for iPad just told the consumer world that they are paying too much for mobile broadband on postpay plans. Most of the rest of the world already has some sort of prepaid mobile broadband; it’s just a matter of time before the U.S. gets with the program.
  • iPad represents the beginning of the end for the PC desktop metaphor. Windows, mice, title bars, and open-save dialogs have been mainstays of PCs for more than 25 years; in fact, the introduction of the original 1984 Macintosh made them cool. Yet the iPhone and iPad use none of the software elements of these 1980s, opting instead for a full-screen multi-touch experience that makes smarter use of screen real estate. Once someone figures out how to integrate multitasking with multi-touch (10/GUI perhaps?) without dramatically increasing the consumer’s cognitive load, consumers may well decide that these graphical elements no longer serve any useful purpose and finally let them die a natural death. At the very least, they are unlikely to ever be cool again.

"Last time there was this much excitement about a tablet, it had some commandments written on it." -- the Wall Street Journal

Here are my quick reactions to today’s Apple Special Event; expect some more thoughtful analysis in a few hours. But the highlights of the last few hours were:

  • A new Anywhere tablet device called the iPad. The $499 iPad lets consumers listen to music, watch video, read books and periodicals, and view TV shows, all from a 10-millimeter-thick multi-touch LCD tablet. The iPad is designed to be a media device, not a PC; the major software packages available will not be suites such as Microsoft Office, but media-oriented software such as Apple’s own iWords, which Apple is releasing in touch-enabled form for the iPad. That said, the iPad will run all iPhone apps, and additional packages from independent developers for iPad will be sold through the iTunes App Store. 
  • High speed wireless connectivity via 3G and WiFi. iPad boasts more than 100 Mbps wireless Ethernet connection using the 802.11n standard for connecting to content in the home. Versions sold through and AT&T will also feature 3G mobile broadband connections, which will be offered on a prepaid basis. Up to 250 Mbytes per month will cost $14.99; Unlimited monthly broadband will cost $29.99.
  • A new iBooks book reader application. Apple decided to attack the Kindle market by offering an eBook reader on the iPad and added online purchasing via a new iBook Store. The iBook store has 5 publishers signed on to deliver content already; more are in the works. 

Will it catch on? Based on a few minutes of hands-on playing with one, absolutely. The iPad bears the same relationship to a netbook that the original Mac did to DOS PCs: it’s a complete rethinking of the reading and media consuming experience. Apple’s full-color, full motion device makes not only netbooks, but any product with an E Ink display look tired and dated. And if you’re a publisher who lives and dies by what your content looks like, you want to be talking to Apple now; any other digital distribution is going to look very last decade.

Stay tuned for more details and a deeper analysis for clients over the next day or two.

Now that CES is a week behind us and I’ve had some time to put my thoughts together and recover from the dreaded CES flu, I’ll be writing a few blog posts on three big CE products/trends that garnered considerable attention during the show:

  1. Connected Cars
  2. eReaders
  3. 3D-TVs

 I’ll start with a short post on connected cars, as this is really the first year where they received standout coverage: Over 380 in-vehicle technology exhibitors graced CES’ floors this year, Ford CEO Alan Mulally delivered a keynote, and a CEA press release issued before the show claimed that sales of in-vehicle technology topped $9.3 billion in 2009. Yes, you heard correctly, $9.3 billion.

A number of players will profit when more technology finds its way into our cars. Some statistics presented during the show highlight just how much network operators, automotive companies and legislators stand to win. Take a look:

  • Network Operators: Demand for voice and data carriage in connected cars will open up a new market for network operators. On average, over 26 million hands-free calling minutes are purchased each month by OnStar subscribers. Alcatel-Lucent’s ngConnect Program prototype also demonstrated what LTE data plans will do for in-car streaming media.
  • Automotive Companies: In-vehicle technologies are driving automobile purchases more than many analysts had anticipated. 32% of Ford buyers indicated that Sync was critical or important in their purchase decision when buying a car. What’s more, 70% of customers who participated in Sync demos across the country indicated that they are more likely to buy a Ford vehicle.
  • Legislators: Legislators concerned with driver safety will be pleased with some statistics from Nuance, a speech recognition solution provider. Analysis of driver eye movements shows us that drivers keep their eyes on the road 200 to 300 percent more when using speech rather than manual input for tasks like music selection.

Given the diverse set of players in this emerging market, Yankee Group is including a number of questions on connected cars in its updated Consumer Survey. As data begins to come in, expect to see a publication on the subject in the near future.

I got a rude awakening early this morning: the ice and snowstorm that blew through Massachusetts last night knocked out our power. That meant we had no lights, no heat, and no running water (darn those electric well pumps!).

But, like in Emerging Anywhere countries, even though we didn’t have power, we did have Internet access via our mobile phones. And that strange disparity—the ability to call people and access information from the rest of the world when we didn’t have basic infrastructure services—provided personal emphasis to stories I’d recently read in the news over the weekend.

Read the rest of this entry »

The earthquake which struck Haiti on Tuesday has wrought an unimaginable human toll. As the devastation is made plain on our TV screens — and in our browsers — our charitable instincts are awakened and long for an outlet.

Text HAITI to 90999 and a donation of $10 will be given to the Red Cross to help with relief efforts in #Haiti.

So tweeted @mGive on Tuesday evening, and so began a sea change in digital fund raising.

Send a message and save a life.

Quick and easy: Text HAITI to 90999 to donate $10

In the three days since, more than one million such text messages have been sent, bringing in over $10 million to help Haiti’s earthquake victims. Haitian musician Wyclef Jean’s YELE/501501 campaign had collected over $1 million in $5 donations by Thursday. Similar SMS campaigns are underway by International Medical Corps, International Rescue, the Salvation Army, and the William J. Clinton foundation, but it is the “HAITI/90999″ campaign which caught the attention of the Obama administration and was promoted on the White House blog on Wednesday.

Read the rest of this entry »