Star Walk iPhone app on iPad

Based on all the details Wednesday, I’ve written an iPad analysis report that clients should be able to dive into later today. The bottom line: no matter how much you may think Apple ran its hype machine this week, the iPad will be a force to be reckoned with. Why? Because Apple has a unique vision for Anywhere devices and the marketing muscle to back it up. If you have comments or disagreements after reading it, please send them.

Meanwhile, a number of questions and objections to the iPad have popped up online, and given that I’m one of only about 500 people who has used an iPad for a half-hour or so, I thought I’d repond to them here. So without further ado:

Isn’t iPad just a big iPod touch?

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I’ll be publishing a detailed analysis for clients about the Apple iPad and its effect on connected devices (i.e., it’s a big deal) in the next day or so. I have also posted photos that I took of the press, VIPs, and tablets we saw today for those who are interested.

However, I also had some takeaways from the event that fell somewhere between the immediacy of my tweets and the detailed analysis mentioned above. As I look toward the iPad shipping in late March/early April, I see some changes coming. Specifically:

• iPad will knee-cap the netbook market. Despite the millions of units sold, netbooks deliver a lousy user experience; in fact, some netbooks have return rates of 33% or more simply because of that poor consumer experience (see the October 2009 Yankee Group report, Little Netbooks Can Sink Big Brands for details). Unless you’re an analyst or other traveler who has to spend much of your time writing, iPad will be a better investment. Oh, netbooks will survive, but they’ll be in the traditional race to the bottom of the price ladder, while Apple scoops up all the profits from the segment. Said another way, if you know that a device like the iPad will be available, why would you ever buy a netbook?
• Consumers will struggle with whether to buy the 3G iPad. iPad is the archtype Anywhere device: its broadband connection and its links to networked apps and content are what make it special. But given that adding a 3G connection adds more than 26 percent to the iPad’s purchase price, consumers will have trouble deciding whether it is worth it, even before the prepaid broadband connection.
• Prepaid iPad broadband will win over consumers. Apple’s announcement of AT&T’s mobile broadband pricing for iPad just told the consumer world that they are paying too much for mobile broadband on postpay plans. Most of the rest of the world already has some sort of prepaid mobile broadband; it’s just a matter of time before the U.S. gets with the program.
• iPad represents the beginning of the end for the PC desktop metaphor. Windows, mice, title bars, and open-save dialogs have been mainstays of PCs for more than 25 years; in fact, the introduction of the original 1984 Macintosh made them cool. Yet the iPhone and iPad use none of the software elements of these 1980s, opting instead for a full-screen multi-touch experience that makes smarter use of screen real estate. Once someone figures out how to integrate multitasking with multi-touch (10/GUI perhaps?) without dramatically increasing the consumer’s cognitive load, consumers may well decide that these graphical elements no longer serve any useful purpose and finally let them die a natural death. At the very least, they are unlikely to ever be cool again.

"Last time there was this much excitement about a tablet, it had some commandments written on it." -- the Wall Street Journal

Here are my quick reactions to today’s Apple Special Event; expect some more thoughtful analysis in a few hours. But the highlights of the last few hours were:

• A new Anywhere tablet device called the iPad. The $499 iPad lets consumers listen to music, watch video, read books and periodicals, and view TV shows, all from a 10-millimeter-thick multi-touch LCD tablet. The iPad is designed to be a media device, not a PC; the major software packages available will not be suites such as Microsoft Office, but media-oriented software such as Apple’s own iWords, which Apple is releasing in touch-enabled form for the iPad. That said, the iPad will run all iPhone apps, and additional packages from independent developers for iPad will be sold through the iTunes App Store. 
• High speed wireless connectivity via 3G and WiFi. iPad boasts more than 100 Mbps wireless Ethernet connection using the 802.11n standard for connecting to content in the home. Versions sold through and AT&T will also feature 3G mobile broadband connections, which will be offered on a prepaid basis. Up to 250 Mbytes per month will cost $14.99; Unlimited monthly broadband will cost $29.99.
• A new iBooks book reader application. Apple decided to attack the Kindle market by offering an eBook reader on the iPad and added online purchasing via a new iBook Store. The iBook store has 5 publishers signed on to deliver content already; more are in the works. 

Will it catch on? Based on a few minutes of hands-on playing with one, absolutely. The iPad bears the same relationship to a netbook that the original Mac did to DOS PCs: it’s a complete rethinking of the reading and media consuming experience. Apple’s full-color, full motion device makes not only netbooks, but any product with an E Ink display look tired and dated. And if you’re a publisher who lives and dies by what your content looks like, you want to be talking to Apple now; any other digital distribution is going to look very last decade.

Stay tuned for more details and a deeper analysis for clients over the next day or two.

When researching my new book, ANYWHERE: How Global Connectivity is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business, I was fortunate to interview more than 50 thought leaders in connectivity. Their input was invaluable, and their ideas, advice and examples provide very rich context for the Anywhere vision.

I wish we’d had room to incorporate more of our interviews in the book — but with the infinite capacity of the Web, I’m sharing some of them here.

In this excerpt from my interview with Dr. Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet, founder of 3Com and general partner of Polaris Venture Partners, we discuss the path to ubiquitous connectivity, obstacles to its growth, and how connectivity is accelerating human evolution.

Bob Metcalfe (c) Marcin Wichary

Universal, ubiquitous connectivity—yes or no?

Of course it will become universal. The only exception is the normal one.

What’s that?

Well, if you look at that famous picture of the Earth at night, you’ll see huge swaths of black—for instance, most of Africa.

That’s a pretty big exception.

Right. So it’s a question of time. Impatient people say the digital divide is a condemnation of technology—that it’s nothing short of criminal that we haven’t reached everyone yet. I say, ‘Au contraire. Don’t blame me for not getting them connectivity yet when you haven’t gotten them electricity, roads and clean water.’

You sound like you take it personally.

Sure. You can’t talk about connectivity without talking about Metcalfe’s Law, so how much more personal can it get? It’s not my fault there will be tribes that don’t get connected.

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ANYWHERE the book talks a lot about a future with many more connected devices than those we know and love today. So when I signed our book deal at the beginning of last year, I said it would be a terrible irony if we couldn’t ensure that the book would come out both in hardback and e-book versions simultaneously.

And that was the plan… but e-book publishing is still a bit new and a few technical hiccups stood in the way.

No surprise that I had to withstand a few gentle gibes during our webinar last week, when a few of you pointed out immediately that the Kindle version wasn’t on offer yet.

But as of this weekend, the Kindle version is now available from Amazon. Kudos to McGraw-Hill for pushing this through. We had a quick look at it Tuesday; while you sacrifice a few of the chapter opening graphics, it’s all there and quite readable.  How very Anywhere.

Just in time for Yankee Group’s e-reader forecast, coming out later today!  More ANYWHERE e-book developments are in the works; I’ll post more on this later.

Now that CES is a week behind us and I’ve had some time to put my thoughts together and recover from the dreaded CES flu, I’ll be writing a few blog posts on three big CE products/trends that garnered considerable attention during the show:

1. Connected Cars
2. eReaders
3. 3D-TVs

 I’ll start with a short post on connected cars, as this is really the first year where they received standout coverage: Over 380 in-vehicle technology exhibitors graced CES’ floors this year, Ford CEO Alan Mulally delivered a keynote, and a CEA press release issued before the show claimed that sales of in-vehicle technology topped $9.3 billion in 2009. Yes, you heard correctly, $9.3 billion.

A number of players will profit when more technology finds its way into our cars. Some statistics presented during the show highlight just how much network operators, automotive companies and legislators stand to win. Take a look:

• Network Operators: Demand for voice and data carriage in connected cars will open up a new market for network operators. On average, over 26 million hands-free calling minutes are purchased each month by OnStar subscribers. Alcatel-Lucent’s ngConnect Program prototype also demonstrated what LTE data plans will do for in-car streaming media.
• Automotive Companies: In-vehicle technologies are driving automobile purchases more than many analysts had anticipated. 32% of Ford buyers indicated that Sync was critical or important in their purchase decision when buying a car. What’s more, 70% of customers who participated in Sync demos across the country indicated that they are more likely to buy a Ford vehicle.
• Legislators: Legislators concerned with driver safety will be pleased with some statistics from Nuance, a speech recognition solution provider. Analysis of driver eye movements shows us that drivers keep their eyes on the road 200 to 300 percent more when using speech rather than manual input for tasks like music selection.

Given the diverse set of players in this emerging market, Yankee Group is including a number of questions on connected cars in its updated Consumer Survey. As data begins to come in, expect to see a publication on the subject in the near future.

I got a rude awakening early this morning: the ice and snowstorm that blew through Massachusetts last night knocked out our power. That meant we had no lights, no heat, and no running water (darn those electric well pumps!).

But, like in Emerging Anywhere countries, even though we didn’t have power, we did have Internet access via our mobile phones. And that strange disparity—the ability to call people and access information from the rest of the world when we didn’t have basic infrastructure services—provided personal emphasis to stories I’d recently read in the news over the weekend.

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The earthquake which struck Haiti on Tuesday has wrought an unimaginable human toll. As the devastation is made plain on our TV screens — and in our browsers — our charitable instincts are awakened and long for an outlet.

Text HAITI to 90999 and a donation of $10 will be given to the Red Cross to help with relief efforts in #Haiti.

So tweeted @mGive on Tuesday evening, and so began a sea change in digital fund raising.

Quick and easy: Text HAITI to 90999 to donate $10

In the three days since, more than one million such text messages have been sent, bringing in over $10 million to help Haiti’s earthquake victims. Haitian musician Wyclef Jean’s YELE/501501 campaign had collected over $1 million in $5 donations by Thursday. Similar SMS campaigns are underway by International Medical Corps, International Rescue, the Salvation Army, and the William J. Clinton foundation, but it is the “HAITI/90999″ campaign which caught the attention of the Obama administration and was promoted on the White House blog on Wednesday.

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Possibly the best proof of the value of expanding connectivity is the role it plays in providing healthcare in emerging markets. As I mentioned in today’s webinar, during the research for our book I spoke with Dr. Hamish Fraser, director of telemedicine for Partners in Health, asking him about the importance of network access in how care-givers connect with patients.

“Where we work, connectivity saves lives,” he said very simply. “The network lets us find patients, alert them to the arrival of medications, and monitor their health. When we can do that, people’s life expectancies rise — we’ve proved it. And when their children live longer, the parents invest more in their development.”

Partners in Health has done ground-breaking work in Haiti, training Haitians in community healthcare and creating Haitian-staffed hospitals around the country that have changed, and extended, many lives.

Following the devastating earthquake this week, their hospitals thankfully are still standing. If you’re looking for an organization that is on the ground in Haiti already and can benefit instantly from your support by increasing its supplies of medications, bandages, and more, please consider going to www. pih.org and making a donation on line.

For some context on the challenges of helping Haiti, see Tracy Kidder’s excellent editorial today in the NYT.

Thanks to everyone who joined us in the webinar today, officially launching our new book ANYWHERE: How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business. For the discussion, I was joined by five terrific thought-leaders in the connectivity space:

• Glenn Lurie, President, Emerging Devices, AT&T
• Walter McCormick, President & CEO, U.S. Telecom Association
• Paul Sagan, President & CEO, Akamai Technologies
• Sriram Viswanathan, VP, Architecture Group, Intel
• Nigel Waller, Founder & CEO, Movirtu, Ltd.

A special thanks to each of them for taking the time to chat about Anywhere and illustrate their own business’ opportunities and challenges. If you missed the presentation, the replay is below–I would be delighted to hear your thoughts.

The webinar runs about an hour: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).