We’re pleased to announce new forecasts in our Market Adoption Monitors and Forecast data suites. In June, we added new forecasts including:
Near field communications. Jon Paisner is building out a regional m-commerce forecast and has built an NFC forecast, shortly to be followed by contactless payments, mobile couponing, mobile banking and P2P. Jon’s NFC forecast charts this nascent market from 2009 including NFC-enabled phones, active users and transaction volumes and values. Volumes and values are segmented by denomination because the competitive behavior of transactions under $5 differs from those over $5. Jon shows rapid growth in this market, predicting 4.7 billion transactions globally in the 5 years from 2009-2013. Nearly 9 in 10 of these transactions will be low denomination by volume, but the value of high denomination transactions is 62.4% of the $28 billion that will be transacted globally over NFC over the next 5 years, predominantly in Asia.
IPTV. Vince Vittore has completed his work on IPTV forecasts by touching all 55 countries in our forecast. With 21 million global subscribers in 2008, he shows nearly 80 million IPTV subscribers in 2013, an increase of 58.8 million new subscribers during 2009 through 2013. The most new subs are in Asia, adding 27.9m followed by Western Europe (adding 17.6m), and North America (10.2m). Latin America, Eastern Europe and MEA are only 3.1m new subs. The country view gives us household penetration, and although Hong Kong leads now at 49.7% forecast for 2009, followed by France at 35.7%, in 2013 five countries will have penetration over 30% (France, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Switzerland and South Korea in descending order).
Digital advertising forecast. Carl Howe is leading an integrated digital advertising forecast that includes TV, Internet and Mobile advertising revenues, complementing the carrier mobile advertising forecast that we have had for some time. Mobile advertising in this new forecast defines the entire market for mobile advertising, rather than the piece seen by the carrier. As a share of all advertising, mobile is small, remaining under 1% throughout the 5-year forecast to 2013, but in North America it jumps the half-billion dollar mark in 2013 from a lowly $185m expected in 2009. Set against the $79.3 billion total North American digital advertising market in 2008, which we see rising to nearly $100 billion in 2013 through modest growth in TV and (moreso) Internet advertising, though, and mobile advertising is perhaps not a big play. Carl is currently working on expanding the digital TV forecast into other regions and countries.
Expansion of Middle East and African forecasts: Wally Swain has been spending time focusing on Africa and the Middle East and completed the range of fixed-line forecasts in that region to add to the mobile-related forecasts already available.