Yankee Group consumer analysts Josh Martin, Carl Howe, and Chris Collins are joined by Jeffrey Breen Yankee’s CTO to add two more predictions to Yankee Group’s Top 10 predictions for 2009. Predictions include:

#3 Mobile business models expand beyond the phone

#2 Boxee becomes the buzz word of 2009 and is acquired

#1 Unemployment drives a new wave of innovation

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Yankee Group consumer analysts Josh Martin, Carl Howe, and Chris Collins are joined by Jeffrey Breen Yankee’s CTO to add two more predictions to Yankee Group’s Top 10 predictions for 2009. Predictions include:

#5: Leap and MetroPCS will merge in 1H09
#4:User Interface is the new mobile battleground

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Carl Howe, Chris Collins and Josh Martin from Yankee Group’s Anywhere Consumer research team join Yankee Group’s Chief Technology Officer Jeffrey Breen to add two more predictions to Yankee Group’s Top 10 predictions for 2009. In this second installment:

#7: The Apple App store will pass 2 billion downloads in 2009.
#6: Streaming becomes the killer app and Netflix finally sounds the death knell for Blockbuster in 2009.

Also in this edition, the secret reason why analysts are not representative of the general population.

Top 10 Consumer Predictions for 2009: #7-#6 podcast (mp3 / 5.1MB / 5:35)

For many years Sling Media has been the darling of the media and warranted unbridled zealotry from its niche segment of consumers but there was always something missing. Something that could truly take Sling to the next level. As of December 30, that missing puzzle piece, an application to playback Slingbox content on a truly mass market device (in this case the Blackberry) will finally be put in place.

Now some may criticize Sling for taking on the Blackberry before tackling the iPhone. But when thinking of the buyers Sling devices currently appeal to, hyper connected business travelers (not exclusively but many are), the decision makes sense. The installed base of Blackberrys to this segment is likely to be higher than that of iPhones, for now.

The reason why this announcement is so important is it finally really makes placeshifting anywhere feasible. No longer will consumers be forced to open their laptops and find WiFi (sometimes a much more challenging task than it sounds). Now commuters can enjoy their Sling’ed content while standing on the train. Travelers waiting for a plane can view their content quickly and easily. This release will change the paradigm in which placeshifting has been viewed.

The benefits are not only restricted to Sling, either. Although they will definitely benefit by increased viral marketing and enhanced usability. The wireless carriers will also benefit as services such as Sling make adoption of data plans increasingly more appealing aiding in ARPU lift. For RIM it helps differentiate its devices from its competitors. For pay TV service providers it could result in upgrades of service as subscribers desire access to more content via DVR and VoD.

Will this bring Sling Media to the mass market? Probably not. But it will certainly broaden its potential audience, enhance the buzz around Sling, and prepare it for mass market love if/when its inevitable iPhone application appears. This is the type of application that the Digital Shut-in segment highlighted in the Yankee Group report They Want Their Anywhere will take notice of and could serve as the impetus for them continuing their evolution to Actualized Anywheres.

3.5 B Euros of revenue in Q3 of 2008 and a merger that has been executed better than the some of their peers in the industry. My observations from the NSN event at Barcelona held a couple of weeks ago.

The Good 

• The elements to be a successful end-to-end network builder that can build,operate and run networks exist. Their product portfolio ranges from good core network component technologies, solid radio access products such as the Flexi base station platform that provides software based upgrade options to LTE from HSPA+, the billing and OSS software products and the managed services unit which has won some significant business across the world.
• Every executive I spoke to consistently talked about NSN helping operators define a better customer experience which is evidence of alignment within the company.

• Ubiquitous connectivity. Broadband everywhere. As Mika Vehviläinen, the COO explained the NSN vision to us,  it felt like an internal Yankee Group meeting talking about making the Anywhere vision real for our customers. I did follow up with the NSN leaders and they agree that the Anywhere vision will be seen as table stakes in the communication world within the next decade.
• An expanded focus on software under the leadership of Mike Mathews, the new head of strategy, to enhance the company vision in the coming months.

  The Bad

• NSN executives admitted that though they were present in Americas, a much better job needs to be done to present their value proposition.
• The economic environment has taken a toll on all network vendors including NSN, as revealed by their financial statements. It will be a very tough year for network builders to win new business in this economic climate as described in a Yankee group report “It’s the Economy, Stupid: Yankee Group’s 2009 Predictions” published last week.
• In order to make the vision a reality, NSN will have to demonstrate that an engineering company understands the end customer experience (consumers and enterprises) and that it can think and act like a B2P (Business to People) company it aspires to be. I personally believe that enhanced customer experience at all touch points will be a differentiator for the service provider since I worked for one in the past that executed successfully on providing the ICE (ideal customer experience). However, this is an old story which is often paid lipservice to – we will see how NSN executes on this concept.

The Ugly

• The NSN analyst event was held at the Nokia world event and clearly it was far away from the limelight. The Nokia keynotes did not mention NSN’s role in building and powering the network and connecting people which is Nokia’s mission.
• I left unconvinced that NSN was leveraging the Nokia’s experience with end consumers to the extent possible, especially since the NSN vision is about enabling a rich customer experience. Clearly it is tough to integrate a consumer oriented culture at Nokia with the engineering mindset at NSN. We shall find out.

  p.s: The post got delayed due to my move to Boston the week following the event. Apologies.

Carl Howe, Chris Collins and Josh Martin from Yankee Group’s Anywhere Consumer research team join Yankee Group’s Chief Technology Officer Jeffrey Breen to start the countdown of Yankee Group’s Top 10 predictions for 2009:

10. Twitter is the new Facebook
9. AT&T/Verizon/IPTV subscribers will exceed 7 million in U.S.
8. Mobile becomes the key to quad-play success

Top 10 Consumer Predictions for 2009: #10-#8 podcast (mp3 / 11MB / 11:59)

On this Yankee Group Podcast, David Vorhaus, Vince Vittore, Josh Martin and Jeffrey Breen discuss all manner of free content and services, ranging from freemium services, advertsing-supported business models, free muni WiFi and more.

Free Free Free (mp3 / 6.57 MB / 07:10)

The blogosphere is aflutter with the news that this year will be Apple’s last Macworld event and that Phil Schiller rather than Steve Jobs will be doing the keynote. What could have gone wrong? Is Steve ill? Does this mean the end of Apple?

Get a grip people. The real reasons behind this move are exactly what the press release says (gasp! can you do that in PR?). Macworld, like most other trade shows, wasn’t really working as part of Apple’s marketing strategy, so they gave notice that they aren’t going to do it any more. The reasons? It’s actually pretty simple. Apple’s annual Macworld extravaganza was:

• Expensive. Macworld Conference and Expo may be a cultural icon to some, but it is actually just a trade show organized by IDG. While that is a great business for IDG, it’s a multi-million dollar expense for Apple, all to reach around 50,000 attendees. While that may be nice, it’s about the same number of people Apple reaches at its Fifth Avenue Store in New York in a few days. Not exactly the best return on investment.
• Inconvenient. Let’s see, what’s the best way to annoy employees? I know, we’ll make them work through the holidays to prepare for a big trade show on the first week of the new year. While all of the consumer electronics industry seems to honor this tradition for the January Consumer Electronics Show, that doesn’t mean it’s a good practice. Apple and its employees don’t need the hassle. 
• Way too predictable. There’s no better way to ruin surprise and excitement than to schedule it months in advance (proof point: Microsoft OS launches). Pundits everywhere (myself included) now plan stories and research around the first week in January knowing that Apple must have something new to talk about. That doesn’t fit with the amazingly great marketing Apple likes to produce. And yet the downsides of this predictability are huge: if the unthinkable should happen — some technology is late, there’s a new product production glitch — Apple has to jump through hoops to deliver regardless or be painted as having “failed” because they didn’t deliver in time for Macworld.

Despite the end of Apple’s participation in Macworld, no one should think that this is the end of the Apple, new Apple products, or even Steve Jobs’ famed keynotes. Instead, these will now be surprises, undoubtedly announced using Apple’s now famous special event invitations emailed to attendees. And while Apple won’t have the throngs of every day fans at those events, special store events will offer venues to reach that audience. People often forget that Steve Jobs shows up occasionally at non-Macworld events such as the opening of the Regent Street store in London; not doing Macworld will undoubtedly create new opportunities for other appearances. And no matter where he goes or what he does, he will still draw a crowd. And those who need a structured schedule and their annual fix of Jobsian presentation mastery, they can always attend Apple’s World Wide Developer’s Conference in the summer, where he will undoubtedly be doing keynotes and cameos there for years to come.

The bottom line: Apple has again figured out yet another way to “think different” by leaving something out, just as it did with the floppy disk. And just as with floppies, the rest of the industry will go through denial, rejection, and finally acceptance that it was the obvious thing to do. 2009 is already shaping up to be a very interesting year.

The current economic turmoil has many service providers, vendors and other enterprises asking themselves what’s to come. How will failing credit, jeopardized revenue and spending reductions impact the telecommunications landscape and affect the Anywhere revolution, a global transformation toward ubiquitous connectivity? What critical decisions must be made for 2009? How can your company come out on top?

Last week, Zeus Kerravala, Declan Lonergan and I hosted a webinar to discuss Yankee Group’s predictions for 2009, looking at the Anywhere Network, Consumers and Enterprises. Check out the replay to hear:

• How the inevitable demand for ubiquitous connectivity – via broadband and wireless – will shape the industry in 2009
• Predictions of the expected impact of a struggling economy on the telecommunications industry.
• The winners and losers of 2009.
• Recommendations for Service Providers, Vendors and Enterprises

The webinar runs about an hour: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).

The emergence of ubiquitous high-speed Internet access around the world, coupled with the portability of computing, is contributing to a permanent shift in how employees do their jobs. This shift is at the core of what Yankee Group calls the Anywhere Enterprise — our vision for how companies in the future will connect all their assets to employees and partners, anywhere and anytime.

The 20th century saw a massive shift in the nature of work, and thus in how a commercial enterprise approached that work. The size and shape of desks, for example, along with where they were placed and who filled them, changed completely from this 19th century office at left. Over the course of this century, change isn’t coming to desks but to the role of location in our work.  

In a short report just published called, “The Future of Work”, YG analyst Josh Holbrook points out that this change isn’t optional. YG’s 2008 Blended Lifestyle Survey shows that nearly three-quarters of U.S. workers believe that allowing employees to work from home benefits the company. In fact, employees said the single most important thing their company could do to improve their productivity — choosing from options that included getting new technology, using their own computers, and other appealing choices — was just enabling them to work from home.

But the increased productivity and lower costs that can result don’t come without effort. “Organizations that aspire to a remote workforce all too often craft a corporate memo and assume employees will be so pleased, that everything else will take care of itself, ” he said. Instead, Josh recommends a five-factor framework to creating a successful remote working environment in your enterprise, beginning with a comprehensive diagnosis of real employee needs and ending with managing a well-planned change process.

Great thinking, and just one consequence of the expansion of the network to every nook and cranny of the earth.