Evolution was a blow to the T. Rex, the dodo and the quagga. It won’t be less painful for traditional telcos.
If new interconnect models play out, nothing less than extinction is the fate of those who can’t or won’t evolve.
Take the GSM Association’s proposed IP Exchange model (IPX). IPX was designed to address technical and commercial needs in all-IP, media rich communications environments.
The specific aim is to secure and monetize multimedia interactions across mobile and fixed networks. Key concepts include a system of cascading payments in the supply chain, transactional transparency, measured QOS and tough service level agreements.
It’s vastly different from the traditional voice model of floating minutes, arbitrage, transit and settlement. In fact, it kills it stone dead.
Does IPX represent creationism - an intelligent design imposed on the market - or a manifestation of natural selection - an inevitable evolutionary step?
Certainly, the global telecoms market is failing to cope with the growth of multi-platform voice and data connectivity. And carriers must be rewarded for content delivery and network performance in an open and fair manner.
Not least is how to handle the multiplication of IP end points that must be mapped and addressed. The management of ENUM registries, emerging federations and associated VOIP peering systems could be big business for the likes of Neustar, Telcordia and X-Connect, not forgetting underlying infrastructure vendors such as Ericsson and Veraz Networks.
That said, destruction of value on a grand scale faces carriers operating in traditional ways.
What’s the response from carriers on these issues? Silence or schizophrenia. Paralyzing many carriers is the fact that they have vast sums to lose, but also to win.
A few carriers, like Telecom New Zealand and Belgacom ICS, are testing out IPX and SIP peering. Some, like the i3 Forum - representing 8 major carriers with more than 1 billion fixed and mobile subscribers across 80 countries - are scrutinizing technical and financial implications of new interconnect models with the morass of standards bodies involved.
Is a consensus emerging on the future of interconnect? You’ll hear entirely different views from retail divisions, wholesale divisions and the guys in network engineering - from the same company.
What a disgrace that many carriers cannot yet speak with one voice! But if there is one voice they must all listen to, it’s that of their shareholders.
Like it or not, if natural selection does not prevail swiftly enough, shareholders will soon order carriers to eat their young.
