I sit on my couch writing this Blog post at 7:31 ET instead of watching some fine American television fare such as So You Think You Can Burp The Alphabet because Apple has again stirred the controversy pot with cryptic allusions to future products being used to squash competitors. So, fire up the presses and let the months of guess what Apple will do next begin! As I sit here pondering over what Apple could have up its sleeve I feel compelled to do what any good analyst would do - speculate. And DVR the aforementioned show (If I don’t see who gets belched out my entire week will be ruined)!

In order to effectively prognosticate over Apple’s intentions we should first triage the situation to understand where Apple is weakest:

1. Not iPods. Dominating a slowing market (even though competitors are gaining a bit of momentum) so there is little need to risk margins to further consolidate their position in digital audio players. Adding WiFi makes sense as does incorporating social networking but that is hardly a category killer.
2. No chance it’s iPhones. With the recent success of the iPhone 3G launch and carriers eating a bulk of the cost it is unlikely a new rev or lower prices are coming soon (and even if Apple wanted to make changes the outcry witnessed at last year’s price drops would eliminate that desire).
3. Does anyone care about Apple TV. A category where Apple COULD do better. But since the category is nascent and no one else is offering low cost alternatives this is probably not it either.
4. It must be MacBooks. As Sherlock Holmes once said “Elementary, my dear Watson!” Apple has continued to grow their role in the PC space but continues to lag behind competitors. It is most likely the innovation and margin pressure will come from this product.

Now that we have determined the likely product category we must evaluate what Apple can do

The Likely

Introducing the MacBook Sub. As laptops continue to gain market momentum Apple continues to price itself out of the entry level market as lesser known brands such as MSI and Asus battle with established players HP and Dell in the sub-notebook space. But Apple is nowhere to be seen. With the MacBook not updated since what seems like 1997 it is possible the Macbook transforms into an aluminum beauty of a sub-notebook at a very attractive price - at or under $500. Or just as possible a fourth Macbook line joins the family to fill this need and the Macbook just gets a makeover. Apple gets volume and increases share but loses out on margin.

The Less Likely

MacBook Tablet Touch begs for groping (and a punchier name). The oft lusted after Macbook Tablet could finally come to fruition for all your multi-touch needs. This makes sense as it increases Apple’s tactile feedback to product portfolio ratio and it would have all the fanboys swooning. However, unless Apple were to trim margins significantly it is unlikely the cost (and price) could come down enough to appeal to the mass market - so it would probably be a premium priced product and not fall under the auspices of the comments.

The Slightly Absurd

The iMac Touch. The iMac has helped anchor Apple as a player in the connected home for some time. However, the cost of an iMac continues to exceed that of other desktops. Add to that the newest HP MediaSmart PC and Apple may have some competition as the ”coolest” desktop.  Apple’s strategy has always been to make products that fit different needs and an iMac Touch positioned as a family device fostering intra household communication would accomplish this. However, HP’s inability to gain mass market interest in TouchSmart makes this unlikely. 

The Totally Absurd

The New iPhone. I ask you to recall the go-go era of 2005 when rock and roll was alive and well and the iPod Mini was the best selling MP3 player. Then Septmeber hit and Apple killed the Mini at the height of its popularity, and rock and roll died with it. Could the same be said of the iPhone 3G? Could the iPhone 4G or dare I suggest, the iPhone 5G inter planetray satellite communication device be in the offing? The phone that can diagnose and cure diseases, replicates food ala Star Trek, runs on solar power, is built from nothing but biodegradable hemp, provides shelter from a storm, and tells time! All that for less than $100? No No, that is totally absurd (but would definitely justify ANOTHER upgrade).

What do you think?

P.S. I apologize for breaking my vow to not discuss the iPhone for a few weeks. I am sincerely sorry about my earlier misrepresentations.