Analysts like myself are Cassandras of the modern age; our predictions and insights are often not believed.

Cassandra’s gift of prophecy emerged after snakes in the employ of the god Apollo licked her ears clean so she could hear the future.

I have to rely on other methods.

Perhaps you expect me to say that the tools of my trade include C-level interactions, the crafting of S and J curves as well as time-series analysis of ARPU trends. And of course they do.

But in recent times, the analytical prism which also guides my assertions is a 52-year-old veteran of pan-European broadcasting – and where Abba launched its global career.

That’s right, it’s the Eurovision Song Contest.

Those unfamiliar with this mega pop fest should know that its purpose is to elect the best song in a marathon contest broadcast live to more than 100 million viewers. It now draws participants from 43 countries, and past entrants include Abba, Céline Dion, Julio Iglesias and Olivia Newton-John.

Eurovision is apt for my job because it mirrors trends in the global telecommunications industry. Indeed, the contest exemplifies the decline of the Western world against the rising power of emerging nations.

Take Eurovision’s definition of ‘Europe,’ now generously expanded to include Azerbaijan and Israel.

But it’s the voting patterns to which I now pay close attention. Belgrade is the 2008 venue; the largest European nations haven’t won in a decade. Voters in Kjiv, Istanbul and Baku don’t want to hear trans-atlantic pop styles anymore, they’re valuing their own.

It’s the same in telecoms: Operators from emerging markets don’t slavishly seek guidance from the developed world, they’re creating their own agenda.

Look at India’s telecoms powerhouses. Previously, Reliance Globalcom and Tata Communications bought into North American distressed assets like Tyco and Flag. Today, they’re pouring cash into other emerging economies. Look at Dhanus Technologies’ acquisition of Turkey’s Borusan Telekom, or Bharti’s dalliances with South Africa’s MTN. More is to come.

And don’t fixate on India’s players. Others changing global telecommunications dynamics include Egypt’s Orascom Telecom. It recently launched a subsidiary, Telecel Globe, specifically to acquire assets in Africa and Asia. Also worth watching are Russia’s Sistema-backed MTS and Singapore’s STT, the owner of Global Crossing.

Eurovision 2008 is on May 24th. If you want to gauge how our global market is evolving, take note of who garners votes and those rewarded with nul points.